When a prominent figure in Pakistan's intellectual community publicly calls the entire economics profession "useless," it calls for a strong response. In this sharp rebuttal, Dr. Ali Salman counters the existing skepticism by highlighting the significant contributions of Pakistani economists throughout our history. These contributions range from creating global development indices to building modern social safety nets. The Research and Debate Society presents this piece not just to defend the profession but to address the deeper tensions between economic knowledge, political inaction, a stubborn state apparatus, and a need to revisit the rulebooks to bring about greater market reforms.
The Making of Economic Thought in Pakistan
Recently, Dr. Nadeem Ul Haque, one of Pakistan's most prominent economists, declared that all economists in Pakistan are "useless." This bold claim, shared in public forums and an article, has posed a question about the role and relevance of economists in shaping the country's economic policies and public discourse.
As someone deeply involved in economic research and policy for last 20 years, I believe his thesis is both faulty and misleading. While I acknowledge the limitations of our policy environment, I argue that Pakistani economists have, in fact, played a significant and sometimes transformative role in both policymaking and public debate.
The Historical Footprint of Economists
Let's look back at some pivotal moments:
1960s: Dr. Mahbub ul Haq designed Pakistan's development paradigm, later influencing global debates on human development. His regret over the concentration of wealth in a few families led to major political shifts (as noted by Parvez Hasan in his book, My Life, My Country) and continues to inform economic thinking today. Dr. Haq's work on human development is now institutionalized in the form of the Human Development Index, a critical assessment tool to measure a nation's progress.
1970s: Dr. Mubashir Hassan, as Finance Minister, and an economist, was the architect of the nationalization plan — a policy whose terrible effects are still felt.
1990s: Sartaj Aziz, under Nawaz Sharif-1, led a wave of privatization and liberalization, though the momentum was not sustained. His experiences are chronicled in his book, Between Dreams and Realities.
While working at PIDE, Dr. A.R. Kemal (d. 2008) pioneered quarterly GDP estimates and linked macroeconomic policy to poverty and inequality. Dr. Syed Nawab Haider Naqvi (d. 2024) critiqued the Washington Consensus and offered alternative economic frameworks including Islamic Economics. Dr. Durr e Nayab's work on the middle class remains the major reference on the subject today.
Contemporary Influence
Economists remain active in shaping today's policies, with positive and negative consequences. Dr. Ishrat Husain authored, besides many other books and reports, the Pakistan Triage Report, which underpins the current privatization programme. Dr. Hafiz Pasha, if my information is correct, was one of the early advocates of using the withholding tax regime to increase tax collection. It brought a lot of new revenue, but frankly also misery for taxpayers. Nevertheless, his voice on the macro-economic crisis remains prominent today. In 2016, while speaking at the National Debt Conference organized by Prime Institute, he accurately predicted the growth of external debt in Pakistan and how CPEC would become a liability.
Mr. Shahid H. Kardar served as a minister as well as a governor of the central bank, and he continues to actively engage in public discourse. Dr. Nadeem Ul Haque himself has held key positions, including Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, and has launched innovative research initiatives like SLUDGE and RASTA as the Vice Chancellor of PIDE.
Examples of Policy Influence in Recent Years
Dr. Kaiser Bengali designed the Benazir Income Support Programme in 2008 and contributed to fiscal reforms through the National Finance Award. The Income Support Programme (mainly as a cushion against the shocks of structural adjustment) has been sustained by governments of all political backgrounds since then and enjoys strong support by the IMF.
Dr. Manzoor Ahmad has been instrumental in tariff policy reforms, often working behind the scenes with other experts such as Dr. Ijaz Nabi and Dr. Rubina Ather. I should also mention the role played by the British Economist Dr. Stefon Dercon in this process. The new National Tariff Policy represents a major shift towards free and open trade.
The New Generation
A vibrant new cohort — Dr. Ahmed Jamal Pirzada, Dr. Aadil Nakhoda, Dr. Vaqar Ahmed, Sakib Sherani, Dr. Ali Cheema, Dr. Faisal Bari, and Dr. Ali Hasanain, to name a few — is actively shaping public debate through articles, podcasts, and policy commentary.
Recent policy research, such as the sugar deregulation report by myself and Tuaha Adil, has been acknowledged by the government, providing an opportunity to play a role in developing a roadmap of deregulation of the sugar sector under the consensus-driven Sugar Deregulation Committee.
Challenges and the Way Forward
Of course, there are limitations. Pakistan's economic policy is often shaped by external actors like the IMF, and a credible, homegrown growth strategy is still lacking. There is also a fair critique on economists, as often mentioned by Dr. Khalil Ahmad, for their almost exclusive focus on "state economy," and ignoring "civil economy."
For economists to have greater influence, four conditions must be met. First, their ideas should be widely circulated and accessible to the public. Second, economists must proactively engage with policymakers, navigating political realities, as well as with the private sector. Third, the government must be open to genuine engagement and seek professional advice from our economists. Fourth, there must be a window of opportunity — often created by crisis or political will — for meaningful change.
Conclusion
Pakistani economists, whether their ideas have always been right or wrong, have played a crucial role in shaping policy and public debate whenever given the opportunity. Their continued engagement is essential for the country's progress. As Keynes once noted, the influence of "defunct economists" leaves an imprint on leaders and politicians. This brings a lot of power, responsibility, and burden on economists.